FTR reported that preliminary North American Class 8 net orders in September reached 30,000 units, marking a 107% month-over-month (m/m) increase but a 4% year-over-year (y/y) decline. This figure falls in line with seasonal expectations as the average September order level over the last seven years is 32,170 units. Given the current stagnation in the truck freight market from a volume and rate perspective, this is a very balanced order number and suggests an initial, healthy level of demand for new trucks in 2025 as September is typically the opening of order boards for the following year.

Year-to-date (YTD) performance is now at replacement demand levels with an average of 20,107 net orders per month. Despite four consecutive months of lower y/y orders, strong early-year performance has kept 2024 YTD net orders up 11% y/y. North American Class 8 orders have now totaled 270,819 units for the last 12 months.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “This month, OEMs saw positive market demand, though the magnitude of the m/m increases varied. The vocational market considerably outperformed the conventional sector, driving most of the m/m improvement. Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at replacement demand levels in 2024 to date. We expect a modest increase in September backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month. With inventory remaining near record levels, we also expect further downward pressure on build rates through the end of 2024.”