FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index barely moved in December with a reading of 6.4 as shippers saw unusually stable conditions during the month. However, entering 2024 the outlook is weaker as fuel prices stop dropping steadily and freight rates become a bit less favorable.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “We are seeing firmer freight demand than our forecasts had been indicating, and that will start chipping away at the favorable capacity utilization and rate environments that have benefitted shippers for some time. Shippers should start mulling over how they will respond to a freight market that is considerably more balanced and, therefore, more susceptible to volatility. However, we do not forecast consistently unfavorable conditions for shippers until 2025, and even then, we would not expect negative SCI readings to match the scope of positive readings seen in 2023.”

The February FTR’s Shippers Update, published February 7 provides a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the December Shippers Conditions Index and provides the forecast for this index through December 2024. The February edition includes a discussion of how recent U.S. economic data exposes the flaw in relying on raw economic data in assessing freight volume.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance.